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Supply Chain Report

THE LATEST JARRETT SUPPLY CHAIN REPORT FOR SEPTEMBER 2026

MARKET

  •  The Cass Freight Index shipments component rose 2.1% year over year in August, marking the first year-over-year gain since January 2023 and ending a 42-month downturn. The gain largely reversed declines in June and July. Freight expenditures surged 18.7% year over year, accelerating sharply from a 9.1% gain in July, as higher shipment volumes helped drive the increase. The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index rose 0.7% month over month and 11.3% year over year, with the contract market adjusting higher even as spot rates showed modest softness. (Cass Transportation Index Report 2026)

  • Canada imposed retaliatory tariffs of up to 50% on nearly $20 billion worth of U.S. goods effective September 8, matching the 50% duties President Trump levied on Canadian imports after trade negotiations collapsed in August. Affected goods include steel, aluminum, clothing, furniture, dairy, household appliances, and industrial equipment. The escalation could disrupt hundreds of billions of dollars in annual cross-border commerce, as U.S.-Canada trade totaled nearly $900 billion in 2025. Business groups warn that continued tariff escalation could increase costs and prices, prompting companies to reconsider cross-border sourcing and supply chain strategies. (FreightWaves: New Canadian Tariffs)

  • Tariff costs for U.S. companies have eased from their 2025 peak but remain significantly above historical levels. A JPMorganChase analysis found that customs duty payments by midsized companies were more than twice their October 2024 baseline as of June 2026. Tariff burdens have increased across every major industry, with apparel, electrical equipment, and machinery manufacturing seeing some of the largest increases. Despite the higher costs, international purchasing activity has remained relatively stable, suggesting many midsized companies may be delaying major supply chain changes until there is greater clarity around future trade policy. (Supply Chain Dive: JPMorganChase Institute)

  • The U.S. national average on-highway diesel price stood at $6.285 per gallon as of September 14, 2026, up 31.8 cents from one week prior and $2.546 per gallon higher year over year. Regional prices ranged from $6.158 per gallon on the East Coast to $8.039 per gallon in California. (EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update)

LESS-THAN-TRUCKLOAD (LTL)

  •  Trucking rates continued to rise in August despite relatively soft freight demand, with LTL pricing increasing 4.5% month over month and 14.3% year over year. Higher fuel costs contributed significantly to the increase. Contract rate renewals in the mid- to high-single digits are becoming more common, while several major LTL carriers have implemented higher general rate increases. Continued low-level growth in U.S. manufacturing and efforts by manufacturers to build inventory amid supply and pricing concerns are also supporting LTL demand. Overall, transportation costs are moving higher even without a significant increase in overall freight volumes, creating continued cost pressure for shippers heading into the fourth quarter. (JOC: US LTL Truck Pricing)

  • The U.S. LTL market could be showing early signs of improving demand heading into the fourth quarter after several years of declining volumes. Major carriers reported stronger August shipment activity, with XPO’s daily shipments up 5.7% year over year and Saia’s up 1.1%. Old Dominion’s decline narrowed to 2.4% from 5.3% earlier in the quarter. The improvement may reflect freight shifting from constrained truckload capacity into LTL, along with continued strength in air freight and imports from Asia. However, the market remains volatile, with shippers using smaller, faster shipments to address inventory gaps and avoid stockouts. (JOC: Slow Freight Demand Growth)

TRUCKLOAD (TL)

  • U.S. truckload rates edged down in August from July but remained well above year-earlier levels. Dry van spot rates fell 3.7% month over month but were up 42.4% year over year, while flatbed spot rates declined 2.7% month over month and increased 42.2% year over year. August spot load postings dropped 9.3% from July but were still 35.3% higher than a year earlier. (DAT Trendlines)

  • Federal enforcement actions targeting trucking fraud, driver licensing, and commercial driver training are adding pressure to an already tightening U.S. truckload market. More than 110 driver-training providers were removed, with more than 160 additional schools facing proposed removal, following investigations into English-language proficiency and CDL compliance. While the immediate impact on capacity is expected to be limited, analysts say the cumulative effect of stricter enforcement is slowing the flow of new drivers and reducing the number of carriers able to operate. This could contribute to tighter capacity and higher transportation rates, particularly as freight demand improves. The increased focus on compliance may also accelerate a shift toward established carriers with stronger safety and regulatory programs, potentially giving compliant carriers a greater competitive advantage. (JOC: DOT Crackdown on Illegal Trucking)

PARCEL

  •  UPS is raising its 2026 holiday peak-season surcharges, adding further cost pressure for parcel shippers. Beginning September 27, higher fees will apply to oversized, bulky, and additional-handling packages, while additional demand surcharges begin October 25 for residential, air, and Ground Saver shipments. Peak charges will be highest from November 22 through December 26 and remain in effect through January 16, 2027. Compared with 2025, several surcharge categories are increasing by roughly 6%–10% for handling and size fees and 22%–25% for flat service-level charges. UPS also expects U.S. package volume to increase significantly during the fourth quarter, indicating that shippers should anticipate continued pricing pressure during the holiday peak. (Supply Chain Dive: Higher Holiday Surcharges)

  • Teamsters President Sean O’Brien publicly put UPS on notice for a 2028 contract fight two full years early, declaring that the union is prepared to strike when the current five-year agreement expires on July 31, 2028, and describing the company’s management as having “dismantled the relationship with the Teamsters” and failed to invest in its business. O’Brien’s demands include protections against benefit rollbacks, restrictions on autonomous truck deployment, a provision allowing regional unions to strike mid-contract over unresolved grievances, and resistance to outsourcing to non-union subsidiaries such as Roadie. UPS responded that the current agreement remains in place through July 2028 and that it is committed to working with the Teamsters. (FreightWaves: UPS: Strike Coming in 2028)

INTERNATIONAL

  •  The Drewry World Container Index remained stable at $4,476 per 40-foot container for the week of September 10, holding flat for a second consecutive week as divergent trends across trade routes offset one another. Drewry flagged ongoing disruptions, including continued Iran-U.S. tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, elevated port congestion in Asia, and a postponed Panama Canal draft reduction for Neopanamax vessels. Drewry expects rates to remain stable in the near term as carrier capacity management supports pricing amid easing demand and advises shippers to book early given the potential for congestion and blank sailings to tighten capacity with little notice. (Drewry World Container Index)

  • Global container-port activity continued to shift in the first half of 2026, with Ningbo-Zhoushan overtaking Singapore for second place and Malaysia’s Port Klang entering the global top 10. Shanghai remained the world’s busiest container port, while six of the top 10 were in China, reflecting continued strength in Asian export activity. The most significant disruption occurred in the Middle East, where Jebel Ali in Dubai fell from 10th to 32nd as disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz forced carriers to alter routes and networks. Southeast Asian transshipment hubs, including Singapore, Port Klang, and Tanjung Pelepas, benefited from cargo being rerouted around disrupted trade lanes. Overall, the changes highlight how geopolitical disruptions, rerouting, and shifting trade patterns are reshaping global container flows and adding additional handling and transportation complexity across international supply chains. (FreightWaves: New Global Container Port Rankings)

  • U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) is tightening importer reporting requirements beginning September 18, with increased enforcement around the accuracy of Importer of Record (IOR) information. Importers may lose their ability to bring goods into the U.S. if they submit inaccurate customs information, and the requirement applies even when a customs broker submits the information on their behalf. CBP is also conducting a comprehensive review of importer records, including addresses, phone numbers, and email information, and may take additional enforcement action for noncompliance. The changes increase the importance of accurate data, documentation, and ongoing customs compliance for importers while adding potential administrative costs and risk for companies managing international supply chains. Overall, shippers should ensure their IOR information is current and establish processes to regularly verify customs data, even when relying on third-party brokers. (Trucking Dive: Shippers Could Lose Import Privileges )