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Supply Chain Report

THE LATEST JARRETT SUPPLY CHAIN REPORT FOR OCTOBER 2026

MARKET

  •  The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index rose 1.9% year over year in September, the second consecutive annual gain after a 3.5-year downturn that was the longest on record. Freight expenditures climbed 20.4% year over year as higher shipment counts, rising rates and fuel surcharges lifted total spend, while the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index rose 10.1% year over year to 154.8. Cass said normal seasonal patterns would put October shipments up about 4% year over year, though it cautioned that rising oil prices and interest rates remain limiting factors. (Cass Transportation Index Report September 2026)
  • C.H. Robinson agreed to buy rival RXO in a stock-and-cash transaction valued at $5.8 billion. RXO shares rose more than 20% Monday, Oct. 5, while C.H. Robinson shares fell nearly 11%. The two companies reported combined gross domestic transportation-management revenue of $17.4 billion last year, according to Armstrong & Associates. The deal is expected to close in the first half of 2027. (WSJ: C.H. Robinson to Buy RXO)
  • Semiconductors, data transmission equipment and data center hardware accounted for 42% of all goods trade growth in 2025 and about 76% in the first quarter, according to an NYU Stern report commissioned by DHL Group, as the artificial intelligence buildout creates new freight flows. AI-related goods made up 53.5% of the value of goods moved by air in the first half but just 7% of volume, according to the International Air Transport Association, and C.H. Robinson said semiconductor and AI-related air freight from Asia to the U.S. grew nearly 60% over the past year. Logistics providers are racing to capture the business, with DHL Global Forwarding sizing the data center logistics market at about $23 billion in 2025 and FedEx estimating its addressable market at $7 billion. (FreightWaves: AI transforms trans-Pacific trade)
  • The U.S. national average on-highway diesel price stood at $6.179 per gallon as of Oct. 12, 2026, down 2.0 cents from the prior week’s $6.199 per gallon and $2.51 above a year ago. The price has eased for two consecutive weeks since reaching $6.382 on Sept. 28, though prices in the Rocky Mountain and West Coast regions edged higher last week. (EIA: Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update)

LESS-THAN-TRUCKLOAD (LTL)

  •  Old Dominion Freight Line announced a 4.9% general rate increase on various tariff codes that took effect Oct. 5, one month earlier than last year’s increase, which was also moved up a month. ArcBest implemented a 5.9% increase June 22, and Saia implemented a 7.1% increase July 6, which was 120 basis points higher and three months earlier than its 2025 hike. The accelerated schedules come as the ISM Manufacturing PMI stayed in expansion territory for an eighth consecutive month in August at 54.6. (FreightWaves: Old Dominion pulls forward 4.9% GRI)
  • LTL rates hit a new high in the third quarter, with the rate-per-pound component of the TD Cowen-AFS Freight Index finishing 78.8% above its January 2018 baseline, 11.9 percentage points higher than a year earlier. The index is projected to reach 82.5% above the baseline by the end of the fourth quarter, driven by high diesel prices and carrier pricing power. Public carrier data has diverged somewhat from the index, with tonnage at publicly traded LTL companies turning positive year over year in March as freight previously lost to truckload returns to LTL networks. (FreightWaves: LTL rates hit new high in Q3)

TRUCKLOAD (TL)

  • National spot trucking rates for October stood at $3.06 per mile for van, $3.62 per mile for flatbed and $3.62 per mile for reefer, according to DAT Freight & Analytics. For the week of Oct. 5 to Oct. 11, compared with the prior week, van spot rates rose 1.31%, flatbed rates rose 0.55% and reefer rates rose 1.94%, while spot load posts fell 18.17% and spot truck posts rose 4.42%. Load-to-truck ratios declined 23.87% for van, 17.43% for flatbed and 23.16% for reefer, reflecting fewer loads per available truck. (DAT October 2026)
  • Executives from Schneider National and Werner Enterprises said at an investor conference that the truckload capacity correction is still in its early stages, driven by a regulatory crackdown on noncompliant drivers, higher diesel costs for small fleets and the Supreme Court’s broker liability ruling. Schneider said its brokerage unit has cut its approved carrier list to 14,000 from 60,000 at the peak and that capacity, not demand, is now the larger constraint on growth. Werner forecast a 10% to 13% year-over-year increase in one-way rate per total mile for the third quarter and cited the potential for strong contract rate increases in the 2027 bid season, which is expected to begin this fall. (FreightWaves: Truckload carriers: Capacity exodus growing)
  • Trucking Dive released its guide to the top U.S. trucking conferences of 2027, with sessions expected to address driver constraints, artificial intelligence and recovering market dynamics after a yearslong freight recession. The lineup includes SMC³ Jump Start on Jan. 25-27 in Atlanta, Truckload 2027 from Feb. 28-March 3 in Las Vegas and the Mid-America Trucking Show on March 18-20 in Louisville, Kentucky. Later events include the FTR Transportation Conference on Sept. 20-23, with its venue still to be determined, and the ATA Management Conference & Exhibition on Oct. 16-19 in Tampa, Florida. (Trucking Dive October 2026)

PARCEL

  •  Parcel shipping is on track for its most expensive year on record, according to the TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index, with the ground parcel rate-per-package index projected to reach a record 43.3% above its January 2018 baseline in the fourth quarter, up 5.8% year over year. The average fuel surcharge has climbed to 30% of the transportation rate in September from 7.75% in the first quarter of 2021, with nearly three-quarters of the increase coming from carrier adjustments to surcharge tables rather than diesel prices, and the report said surcharges will not fall materially even if fuel prices do. FedEx also announced a 5.9% average general rate increase effective Jan. 4 that moves 2,533 ZIP codes into its most expensive remote delivery area tier, and analysts say the growing list of surcharges is pushing shippers to diversify their carriers. (FreightWaves: Parcel shipping costs approach record high)
  • Analysts are divided on whether UPS’s shift toward premium and business-to-business shipments is a genuine retreat from lower-margin parcel volume or a maneuver ahead of 2028 Teamsters contract talks covering more than 300,000 drivers and package handlers. Consultant Satish Jindel argues UPS has no intention of exiting any part of parcel delivery and predicts it will welcome a strike to reset its cost structure, while Package Shippers Association CEO James Cochrane said he does not expect one. Parcel consultants advise shippers to begin contingency planning now, including integrating alternative carriers into their shipping systems, because backup carriers have limited capacity and onboarding takes time. (FreightWaves: UPS parcel pivot)

INTERNATIONAL

  •  The Drewry World Container Index rose 3% to $4,485 per 40-foot container for the week of Oct. 15, driven mainly by higher rates on the Asia-Europe trade route, where rates increased for the first time after 13 consecutive weekly declines. Shanghai to Rotterdam rose 6% to $3,522 and Shanghai to Genoa gained 7% to $3,945, while on the Transpacific, Shanghai to Los Angeles rose 3% to $7,884 and Shanghai to New York fell 1% to $10,075. Drewry said carriers are pushing higher FAK rates of $4,500 to $4,800 per 40-foot container on Asia-Europe effective Oct. 19, but returning Suez Canal transits and fewer blank sailings are adding capacity, and it expects rates to remain stable next week. (Drewry World Container Index October 2026)
  • Some large cargo ships paid as much as $5 million in near-term auctions this summer to transit the Panama Canal, which Canal Administrator Ilya Espino de Marotta called a record, as the Iran war and El Niño-related weather disrupted global shipping routes. Canal authorities have cut daily transits to 32 because of drought conditions, down from 38 to 41 earlier this year, even as LNG tankers return to the route to serve Asian demand. The auctions cover only a small share of capacity, since advance reservations account for about 90% of traffic, but the base auction price averaged about $380,000 this season, compared with roughly $150,000 between October 2025 and March 2026. (WSJ: Paying $5 Million to Transit the 50-Mile Panama Canal)
  • Bimco forecasts container ship supply will grow as much as 6% in 2027 while demand rises no more than 2.5%, with 3.2 million TEUs of new capacity scheduled for delivery, double the 1.5 million TEUs delivered in 2026. The forecast assumes many services to the U.S. and Europe will still sail around the Cape of Good Hope next year, but Bimco said demand could be 10% lower once all ships return to normal Suez Canal routings, and Sea-Intelligence reports 27% of diverted Asia-Europe capacity has already come back. The outlook also hinges on the Strait of Hormuz reopening and on scrapping, which Bimco currently forecasts at only 140,000 TEUs even though 1.6 million TEUs of the fleet is 25 years old or older. (JOC: Suez return)