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Supply Chain Report

THE LATEST JARRETT SUPPLY CHAIN REPORT FOR OCTOBER 2025

MARKET

  • The Cass Freight Index, which measures overall North American freight volumes and expenditures, reported shipment counts rose 2.5% month over month (m/m) in September, but are down 5.4% year over year (y/y). Freight expenditures rose 5.1% m/m, and were up 2.2% y/y. (CassFreightIndex, October 2025)
  • U.S. growth is likely to weaken through the end of 2025. However, inventory data and the potential for a tax bill to spur business investment point trucking to a better start in 2026. (JOC, September 2025)
  • Beginning Nov. 1, President Donald Trump announced that he will impose a 25% tariff on medium and heavy duty trucks. The new tariff is expected to benefit U.S. manufacturers. (FreightWaves, October 2025)
  • The Logistics Managers’ Index shows cost inflation slowing across the supply chain as transportation capacity grew faster than pricing again in September. (FreightWaves, October 2025)
  • Trucking analysts are trimming expectations for the back half of the year ahead of third-quarter earnings season. (FreightWaves, October 2025)
  • The average price of diesel fuel in the U.S. was $3.711/gallon on Oct. 6. It is up 3.5% y/y. (U.S. Energy Information Administration, October 2025)

LESS-THAN-TRUCKLOAD (LTL)

  • LTL carriers are facing shrinking volumes and lighter shipments as they continue a fundamental restructuring of their sector. (Journal of Commerce, October 2025)
  • Dayton Freight has relocated and expanded its Illinois terminal, marking the company’s second network expansion in September. (FreightWaves, September 2025)
  • The nation’s largest less-than-truckload carrier, FedEx Freight, is on track to become a standalone public company by June of next year. (FreightWaves, September 2025)
  • The LTL rate-per-pound component of the TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index set a record in the third quarter, standing 65.1% above its January 2018 baseline. (FreightWaves, October 2025)

TRUCKLOAD (TL)

  • The TL linehaul index, which tracks rates without fuel and accessorial surcharges, posted a 1.7% y/y increase for the month of September. This index fell 10% in 2023, another 3.4% in 2024 and is trending toward a modest 1-2% increase in 2025.  (CassFreightIndex, September 2025)
  • Modest hike but no ‘great disruption’ seen for truckload pricing in 2026. (Journal of Commerce, September 2025)
  • With a prolonged weak freight market, fleets are controlling costs while expecting further challenges ahead. Trucking execs expect more M&A in addition to other cost saving measures. (TruckingDive, October 2025)
  • U.S. truckload rates were flat in September compared to August. Dry van spot rates were flat m/m, and fell 1% y/y. Flatbed spot rates were flat, and fell slightly by 0.8% y/y. The number of spot loads posted in September were up 18.8% m/m, and 45.5% y/y. (DAT Freight&Analytics, October 2025)

PARCEL

  • FedEx Corp. expects a $1 billion hit from trade volatility this year, underscoring the impact of President Trump’s tariffs and the loss of a key exemption for low-value goods. (SupplyChainBrain, September 2025)
  • Retailers explore postal shipping in the new tariff age, as the abolition of the U.S. de minimis tariff exemption has led to significant customs processing issues and shipment backlogs for commercial carriers like UPS. (FreightWaves, October 2025)
  • Canada Post is operating again after a national strike by workers, but new rolling strikes by the union are creating delivery outages and complicating logistical plans. (FreightWaves, October 2025)
  • Mexico’s new 33.5% tariff on Chinese imports, and tighter documentation rules, are slowing parcel flows and prompting U.S. sellers to shift fulfillment back north of the border. (FreightWaves, October 2025)

INTERNATIONAL

  • The Trump administration began imposing fees on Chinese ships docking at American ports on Oct. 14, in an attempt to counter China’s dominance of commercial shipbuilding and help revitalize the United States’ own shipbuilding industry. (SupplyChainBrain, October, 2025)
  • China flexes maritime power in response to U.S. port fees. (Journal of Commerce, October, 2025)
  • The Port of Mobile finished a deepening project, allowing it to become the first U.S. Gulf Coast port capable of handling super-post-Panamax container ships. Mobile’s deeper harbor could eventually vault it ahead of Houston as the first U.S. call for more Gulf Coast services, if it can further develop its inland franchise. (Journal of Commerce, October 2025)
  • The Drewry WCI Composite index, which measures the bi-weekly ocean freight rate movements of 40-ft. containers in seven major maritime lanes, was $1,651per 40-ft. container on Oct. 9.  It is down 52% y/y. (Drewry, October 2025)