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Supply Chain Report

THE LATEST JARRETT SUPPLY CHAIN REPORT FOR MAY 2026

MARKET

  • The Cass Freight Index reported shipment counts fell 4.4% year over year in April but rose 0.4% month over month, building on a 10.4% m/m gain in February and a 3.0% gain in March, with ACT Research noting three consecutive seasonally adjusted monthly gains increasing the likelihood of a second-half recovery. Freight expenditures rose 3.5% y/y in April as the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index surged 3.2% m/m and 5.6% y/y, with ACT Research attributing the acceleration to an incipient driver shortage and broader capacity constraints pushing spot rates up 25% year over year. (Cass Information Systems May 2026)
  • The U.S. national average on-highway diesel price stood at $5.640 per gallon as of May 4, 2026, up 28.9 cents from one week prior and up $2.143 per gallon year over year. Regional prices ranged from $5.178 per gallon in the Gulf Coast to $7.360 per gallon in California. (EIA May 2026)
  • Bot Auto completed the first fully humanless, over-the-road commercial truckload in American history on April 29, hauling freight 231 miles across Texas overnight from northeast Houston to Hutchins without a safety driver, remote operator or in-cab observer. The company's humanless cost per mile is $1.89, compared with the industry's estimated $2.26 per mile according to the American Transportation Research Institute, while adding a human driver to the operation raises that figure to $3.78. (FreightWaves May 2026)
  • Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in April for the fourth consecutive month, with ISM's index registering 52.7% as the overall economy continued expansion for the 18th straight month. The Prices Index increased 25.6 percentage points over the last three months to its highest level since April 2022, with all six of the largest manufacturing industries reporting price increases stemming largely from the conflict in Iran and tariffs. (Trucking Dive May 2026)

LESS-THAN-TRUCKLOAD (LTL)

  • Old Dominion Freight Line said demand consistently improved throughout the first quarter, with management citing recent business wins and noting that LTL freight lost to a depressed truckload market is returning as TL capacity exits and spot rates surge. The carrier reported a 76.2% operating ratio for Q1 and expects the typical 300 to 350 basis points of sequential improvement in Q2, which would mark the first notable year-over-year margin improvement since 2022. (FreightWaves May 2026)
  • Saia reported first-quarter revenue up 2% year over year to $806 million and said customers are "getting more positive," with tonnage rising 2.8% in March and 6.5% in April as prior-year comparisons ease. The carrier expects 400 to 450 basis points of sequential margin improvement in Q2 — exceeding its normal 250 to 300 basis points change rate — as firming volumes and a lower starting point drive what management anticipates will be a margin turnaround following a $2 billion network expansion. (FreightWaves May 2026)

TRUCKLOAD (TL)

  • National spot trucking rates for the week of May 4-10 show van rates at $2.70 per mile, up 1.3% week over week and 4.5% year over year; flatbed at $3.56 per mile, up 6.1% week over week; and reefer at $3.15 per mile, up 3.0% week over week. The van load-to-truck ratio increased 4.6% week over week and 29.6% year over year, while fuel prices rose 5.4% week over week and 61.1% year. (DAT May 2026)
  • FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller declared the freight recession definitively over during the May edition of the State of Freight webinar, pointing to stronger macroeconomic data indicating activity well above expectations and framing April as a typical seasonal trough before a summer acceleration. Both Fuller and Zach Strickland, head of freight market intelligence, warned the upcoming CVSA International Roadcheck could meaningfully disrupt capacity, with stricter enforcement and compliance scrutiny already influencing driver behavior in an already tight market. (FreightWaves May 2026)
  • FMCSA set a May 14 deadline for carriers and brokers to update their registration information before switching to "Motus," a new platform that includes ID verification tools designed to combat chameleon-carrier fraud and other fraudulent registrations. The system consolidates multiple legacy platforms into a single, fully electronic environment and represents the most significant overhaul to federal motor carrier registration in decades. (JOC May 2026)
  • Werner Enterprises' acquisition of FirstFleet raised its truck count considerably, though overall truckload capacity still contracted in the first quarter according to the Journal of Commerce's Truckload Capacity Index. The $282.8 million deal, completed in January, substantially expanded dedicated capacity, with dedicated operations now representing 78% of Werner's fleet — a sharp increase from 65% a year earlier — making Werner the fifth-largest dedicated provider in the U.S. (JOC May 2026)

PARCEL

  • UPS plans to close an additional 27 parcel distribution centers this year as the company continues its aggressive cost restructuring to better align capacity with lower volumes and boost profitability, which fell 25% during the first quarter as short-term cost pressures outweighed growth in revenue per piece. In the first quarter, small and midsize businesses represented 34.5% of total U.S. parcel volume — the group's highest share in UPS history — as the carrier pivots away from Amazon volume toward higher-margin customer segments. (FreightWaves May 2026)
  • The U.S. Postal Service intends to raise prices on some domestic parcel services in July, including eliminating ounce-based rate differentiation for Ground Advantage and implementing a 3% price increase for parcel PO Box service, with both changes subject to Postal Regulatory Commission approval effective July 12. The adjustments follow the agency's previously approved 8% temporary surcharge on Priority Mail, Ground Advantage and Parcel Select products effective April 26, and are part of Postmaster General David Steiner's broader strategy to grow revenue as cost-saving measures alone are insufficient to restore financial health. (FreightWaves May 2026)

INTERNATIONAL

  • The Drewry World Container Index increased 3% to $2,286 per 40-foot container for the week of May 7, reversing three consecutive weeks of decline on the strength of transpacific and Asia-Europe trade lanes. Rates from Shanghai to New York rose 7% to $3,721 per 40-foot container and Shanghai to Los Angeles increased 5% to $3,062, driven by emergency fuel surcharge increases from MSC and a new $2,000-per-unit peak season surcharge from CMA CGM effective May 1. (Drewry May 2026)
  • A.P. Møller-Maersk maintained its full-year guidance as container demand remains strong, but cautioned that the Middle East conflict will increase costs due to service disruptions and higher fuel prices, with the company working to pass those increases on to customers. CEO Vincent Clerc told CNBC that higher oil prices are costing the company $500 million per month and warned that the conflict's impact will weigh heavily on the second and third quarters, noting the conflict has forced Maersk to continue rerouting vessels around Africa away from the Suez Canal. (WSJ May 2026)
  • FedEx and UPS have implemented fuel surcharge rate increases and levied new temporary fees impacting a wide range of international shipments, driven by escalating fuel costs tied to the war in Iran and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. UPS added a 32-cent-per-pound surcharge for inbound volume from any non-exempt origin country, while FedEx updated its international export fuel surcharge tables, adding several percentage points to rates at current jet fuel price levels, with DHL ecommerce also announcing domestic fuel surcharge increases effective May 30. (Supply Chain Dive May 2026)