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Supply Chain Report

THE LATEST JARRETT SUPPLY CHAIN REPORT FOR MARCH 2026

MARKET

  • The Cass Freight Index, which measures overall North American freight volumes and expenditures, reported that shipment counts rose 10.4% m/m in February as weather-related impacts eased but fell 7.1% y/y. Freight expenditures increased 5.1% m/m and 2.1% y/y. (Cass Information Systems March 2026)
  • The Iran conflict threatens to push inflation higher and jeopardize modest 2026 container shipping demand growth, as 14 million barrels of daily crude oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has been cut to a trickle. The Federal Reserve may become more cautious about interest rate cuts as oil price impacts could offset the modest inflation decline from the Supreme Court's tariff ruling, former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told TPM26. (JOC March 2026)
  • The FMCSA non-domiciled CDL rule will reduce drivers over five years, with 30,000 to 40,000 non-qualifying drivers exiting annually as licenses expire creating operational disruptions concentrated in Texas, California and New York. The rule eliminates Employment Authorization Documents as a pathway and limits eligibility to H-2A, H-2B and E-2 visa holders, impacting drayage, port operations and cross-border shipping while creating higher administrative burdens for supply chain leaders. (Supply Chain Brain March 2026)
  • The Logistics Managers' Index returned a transportation capacity reading of 41 in February, six percentage points lower than January and on par with November 2021 at the height of the pandemic shipping boom. Transportation prices increased 5.2 points to 76.7, a level not seen in four years, while one-year-forward pricing forecasts hit 80.3, marking the fastest expansion rate since March 2022. (FreightWaves March 2026)
  • Companies signed 146 leases for warehouses over 500,000 square feet in 2025, up more than 31% from 2024 and the highest level since 2022. The vacancy rate for these facilities fell to 9.5% in Q4 of 2025 from nearly 11% in Q4 of 2024, driven by third-party logistics providers, manufacturers moving production to the U.S. and companies supplying the data center construction boom. (WSJ March 2026)

LESS-THAN-TRUCKLOAD (LTL)

  • LTL carriers reported mixed Q1 freight performance with ArcBest's revenue per hundredweight rising 3.5% despite daily tonnage being down 4.8%, while Old Dominion remained cautiously optimistic about the economy. Saia's tonnage increased 0.2% in February, driven by volume uptick, with carriers noting contractual renewals of 6.6% in January and 5.9% in February as they maintain yield-management discipline. (Trucking Dive March 2026)

TRUCKLOAD (TL)

  • National spot trucking rates as of March 2026 show van rates at $2.47 per mile, up 2.5% m/m; flatbed at $2.95 per mile, up 8.5% m/m; and reefer at $2.88 per mile, unchanged m/m. Van capacity tightened 10.9% m/m and 93% y/y, flatbed capacity tightened 40.9% m/m and 89.7% y/y, while reefer capacity tightened 120.1% y/y. The national average diesel price is $3.81 per gallon, up 19 cents from one month ago and 11 cents from one year ago. (DAT March 2026)
  • Drayage experts said port truck drivers are unlikely to see immediate capacity impacts from proposed legislation targeting non-domiciled CDL holders and non-English-speaking drivers. Initial impacts are expected in rail drayage and states such as Texas, California and Florida. Industry leaders expressed hope that reduced capacity could ultimately increase rates, though panelists noted that the truckload and LTL sectors are feeling enforcement pressure more acutely than drayage currently. (JOC March 2026)

PARCEL

  • DHL Express workers voted by a 96% margin to authorize a strike if the company fails to present a fair contract by March 31. The Teamsters national master agreement covers thousands of workers across 26 local unions in 16 states. Union leadership warned there would be no contract extensions and that workers would not work past the current agreement's expiration date. (FreightWaves March 2026)
  • UPS is positioning for profitable growth as it reduces Amazon volumes by 2 million pieces per day by June, shedding $5 billion in revenue in less than two years while pivoting to healthcare, small-and-medium sized businesses and premium e-commerce customers. After eliminating 34,000 positions and closing 93 facilities in 2025, UPS announced plans to cut 30,000 jobs and close 24 parcel sort centers in 2026, while maintaining a 97.2% on-time delivery rate during the holiday peak. (FreightWaves March 2026)

INTERNATIONAL

  • The Drewry World Container Index increased 8% to $2,123 per 40-foot container in mid-March, driven by sharp rises on Asia-Europe routes with Shanghai-Rotterdam up 19% to $2,443 and Shanghai-Genoa up 10% to $3,120. Carriers continue managing capacity with only five blank sailings announced on the Asia-Europe trade route for the following week, and several carriers announced higher FAK rates effective March 22. (Drewry March 2026)
  • Mediterranean Shipping Co. issued an "End of Voyage" declaration for all cargo destined for Arabian Gulf ports, diverting shipments to safe ports and levying an $800 charge on shippers. The order, which covers cargo still ashore or at sea and extends to empty containers for export, comes after U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran led to Tehran closing the Strait of Hormuz to global traffic. (FreightWaves March 2026)
  • Hapag-Lloyd paused plans to return to the Suez Canal as the Middle East conflict significantly delayed container shipping's return to the waterway. CEO Rolf Habben Jansen said the carrier has crews and ships stuck in the Persian Gulf war zone and expressed concern about surging oil prices that could raise costs. (WSJ March 2026)
  • Maersk began ship-to-ship fuel transfers from the U.S. and Europe to Asia after bunker suppliers in key Middle East and Asian locations became unable to refuel vessels due to disrupted oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz. Salalah, one of Maersk's main Gulf bunker ports, has been unable to fuel ships for two days, while Singapore marine bunker fuel prices surged to $1,050 per metric ton from $519 before the war began. (JOC March 2026)
  • The Iran conflict is testing 2026 air cargo outlook as the Strait of Hormuz closure accounts for 20% of global oil shipments and 30% of seaborne oil trade, threatening jet fuel price spikes with Brent crude oil surpassing $100 per barrel. A protracted disruption could cause short-term air freight rates to double or triple on corridors directly impacted by Middle East transit hub closures, with U.S. air freight markets vulnerable as some Middle East corridors are critical for pharmaceuticals and retail volumes. (Supply Chain Dive March 2026)