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Supply Chain Report

THE LATEST JARRETT SUPPLY CHAIN REPORT FOR JUNE 2026

MARKET

  • The Cass Freight Index shipments component rose 3.0% month over month in May, narrowing the year-over-year decline to just 1.2%, the smallest gap in 18 months, as freight demand sent its most positive signals in over a year. Freight expenditures surged 7.5% year over year, accelerating sharply from a 3.5% gain in April, driven primarily by slower shipment declines and rising rates, with the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index climbing to 150.8, up 0.4% month over month and 6.9% year over year, its largest annual gain in nearly four years. Cass noted that on current seasonal trends the shipments index would turn positive year over year in July, supported by tight inventories, falling tariffs and a soft U.S. dollar, while ACT Research cautioned that a second-half volume recovery, while likely, will be driven by supply constraints rather than a broad consumer rebound. (Cass Information Systems June 2026)
  •  The transportation pricing component of the Logistics Managers' Index registered a record 96 reading in May, the highest in the index's 10-year history and one point above April, as available capacity fell to 31.7 and aggregate logistics costs climbed 8.4 points to 250.9, the fastest rate of expansion since March 2022. The report attributed the surge to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and higher fuel prices, compounded by regulatory crackdowns on non-compliant drivers that are pushing tender rejections to their highest levels since early 2022, with logistics managers forecasting transportation pricing will remain near 91 over the next 12 months. (FreightWaves June 2026)
  • The U.S. national average on-highway diesel price stood at $5.21 per gallon as of June 8, 2026, down 14.0 cents from one week prior and up $1.74 per gallon year over year. Regional prices ranged from $4.79 per gallon in the Gulf Coast to $6.94 per gallon in California. (EIA June 2026) 
  • Economic activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded in May for the fifth consecutive month, with the ISM index registering 54%, up 1.3 percentage points from April and the highest reading since May 2022, as the overall economy grew for the 19th month in a row. New orders expanded for the fifth straight month at 56.8%, while the Prices Index remained elevated at 82.1%, with the Iran war cited in 42% of respondent comments and tariffs in 18%. ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee Chair Susan Spence noted that an end to the conflict could allow the sector to "really take off." (Trucking Dive June 2026)

LESS-THAN-TRUCKLOAD (LTL)

  • FedEx Freight began trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker FDXF on June 2, completing its spinoff from parent FedEx Corp. and becoming the largest pure-play LTL carrier in North America with 40,000 employees, 365 terminals and approximately $9 billion in annual revenue. The standalone company, led by President and CEO John Smith, has unwound 99% of its bundled-pricing agreements and deployed a 500-member dedicated sales force targeting small- and midsize shippers as well as healthcare, grocery and energy verticals. Medium-term guidance calls for compound annual revenue growth of 4% to 6% and adjusted operating income growth of 10% to 12%, with a long-term goal of generating 50 cents in operating income for each dollar of gross profit. (FreightWaves June 2026)
  •  Old Dominion Freight Line reported a 12.3% year-over-year increase in revenue per day in May, accelerating from a 7.6% gain in April, as yield climbed approximately 16% on the month, driven in large part by rising diesel fuel prices flowing through LTL fuel surcharge step functions. Tonnage per day declined just 3.8% year over year, an improvement from a 6.1% decline in April, and President and CEO Marty Freeman said demand has continued to improve as the second quarter has progressed, with shipment weights up approximately 1.5% year over year. The carrier's second-quarter guidance implies the first meaningful year-over-year margin improvement since 2022, targeting a 73% operating ratio at the midpoint of a 300 to 350 basis point sequential improvement range. (FreightWaves June 2026) 
  • ArcBest and its LTL subsidiary ABF Freight announced a 5.9% general rate increase effective June 22, arriving ahead of the carrier's typical back-half-of-year cadence and matching its last increase from August 2025. The announcement followed ArcBest reporting that its asset-based segment was up 10% year over year through second-quarter-to-date, with tonnage up 5% despite a 2% decline in daily shipments as heavier truckload freight shifts into the LTL network. ArcBest CEO Seth Runser said core LTL pricing continues to improve supported by a rational market. The company upgraded its second-quarter operating ratio forecast to a sequential improvement of 6 to 7 percentage points, roughly double the typical seasonal pattern of 3.5 points. (Trucking Dive June 2026)
  • Amazon announced the full expansion of its LTL service to all businesses and destinations on June 10, sending shares of publicly traded LTL carriers down roughly 5% on the day, though Wall Street analysts largely looked past the move. The e-commerce giant's offering operates through approximately 30 terminals across its package-delivery network using an asset-light model targeting shipments of one to six pallets, and Deutsche Bank analyst Richa Harnain characterized the service as more closely resembling what brokers offer than a traditional hub-and-spoke network. TD Cowen's Jason Seidl said Amazon's use of an intermodal container pool suggests the service will primarily compete in the economy three-to-four-day subsegment, while Morgan Stanley's Ravi Shanker cautioned that Amazon has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to gain meaningful market share in transportation markets through an iterative model that could strike at the perceived moat of real estate footprint and service levels underpinning the LTL investment thesis. (FreightWaves June 2026)
  •  The Journal of Commerce's Top 25 U.S. LTL Carrier rankings show combined revenue for the 25 largest carriers fell 1.7% to $47.3 billion in 2025, though total industry LTL revenue remains 23% above 2020 levels and the sector's terminal count rose 19% from 2023 through 2025 to 3,353 facilities as carriers built out networks for anticipated volume growth. A cross-modal freight shift is now underway that benefits LTL and intermodal rail at the expense of truckload as spot rates surge more than 40% year over year and the U.S. producer price index for long-distance LTL jumped 20% year over year in May, with Saia CFO Matthew Batteh noting during a first-quarter earnings call that the carrier is "seeing more and more opportunities with customers as we're putting dots on the map." (JOC June 2026) 

TRUCKLOAD (TL)

  • National spot trucking rates for the week of June 8-14 show van rates up 4.2% week over week and 17.3% year over year, flatbed rates up 8.5% week over week and 21.4% year over year, and reefer rates up 9.0% week over week but down 4.8% year over year. The van load-to-truck ratio fell 13.7% week over week but remains 92.0% above year-ago levels, while flatbed load-to-truck is up 189.0% year over year and reefer load-to-truck up 97.8%, reflecting a market where carrier capacity remains dramatically tighter than one year ago across all equipment types. (DAT June 2026)
  • The truckload market appears poised for a prolonged period of rate increases, with executives from J.B. Hunt, Schneider National and Werner Enterprises telling investors at a Wells Fargo conference in Chicago that the upcycle driven by a structural purge of noncompliant capacity has only just begun. J.B. Hunt's Spencer Frazier said the industry remains behind after four years of cost inflation in a rate-deflationary environment, with all TL operating expense lines up roughly 30% to 50% over the past five years, and J.B. Hunt management has flagged the likelihood of a cumulative 20% rate hike over the next two years. Contract rates set early in the 2026 bid season are already failing to hold as tender rejections surge, with Schneider's Jim Filter saying it will take a couple of allocation events to recoup price but believing the shift in industry capacity is likely structural, not transitory, suggesting an inflationary rate environment that lasts longer than prior cycles. (FreightWaves June 2026)
  • Cargo theft has evolved from smash-and-grab crimes into a sophisticated blend of cybercrime, identity fraud and physical deception that costs the transportation industry an estimated $18 million per day, according to industry experts, with fraudulent email attempts rising 117% year over year. Organized crime rings are using AI tools to manufacture fake commercial driver's licenses obtainable for under $25, impersonate legitimate carriers and drivers, and intercept scheduled pickups before freight ever moves, withIDScan.net COO Jillian Kossman noting that companies implementing identity verification technology typically find issues with 1% to 2% of driver credentials presented at pickup. Industry analysts now describe the challenge as one of identity-assured logistics rather than physical security, and Greg Haber of Babaco Alarm Systems said no single technology solves the problem, with companies needing multiple layers covering carrier validation, driver credential confirmation, vehicle documentation and shipment tracking from dock to door. (FreightWaves June 2026)

PARCEL

  • The U.S. Postal Service inked a multi-year contract valued at more than $10 billion with DHL eCommerce for last-mile parcel delivery, the longest and most scalable agreement the two organizations have reached in a 25-year partnership. DHL eCommerce operates 19 automated hubs handling nationwide pickup, sortation and linehaul before handing pre-sorted containers to the Postal Service for final-mile delivery to more than 170 million locations six days a week, a model CEO Scott Ashbaugh called the most efficient last-mile option available. The deal bolsters Postmaster General David Steiner's revenue-growth strategy following a $9.5 billion net loss in fiscal year 2025, and follows Amazon's agreement in early April to retain the Postal Service for last-mile delivery at 20% less annual volume than its prior contract as Amazon builds out its own rural delivery capabilities. (FreightWaves June 2026)

INTERNATIONAL

  • The Drewry World Container Index increased 3% to $3,549 per 40-foot container, driven by rate increases on the transpacific and Asia-Europe trade routes, with Drewry confirming from multiple sources that peak season began earlier than usual this year, supporting stronger demand and higher freight rates. (Drewry June 2026)
  • U.S. importers are rushing to move freight on the eastbound trans-Pacific to get ahead of rising bunker fuel surcharges, expected supplier price increases and uncertainty over Section 122 tariffs set to expire July 24, pushing capacity to its tightest levels in years. Forwarders are advising customers to book at least three weeks in advance, space out of Ningbo, Qingdao, Xiamen and Southeast Asia is sold out through June, and rates from North Asia to the U.S. East Coast reached $6,000 per FEU as of June 1, up 19% in one week and the highest in 12 months, with West Coast rates of $4,500 per FEU also at a one-year high. Carriers have levied peak season surcharges of $500 to $1,000 per FEU effective June 1 with additional surcharges of $1,200 to $2,000 per FEU effective June 15, and a carrier executive told the Journal of Commerce that bunker fuel prices in some markets have jumped more than 70% since the war in the Middle East began. (JOC June 2026)
  • Global container volumes held resilient in April at 16.2 million TEUs, up 4% from April 2025, despite the first full month following Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with Container Trade Statistics describing trade as "remarkably resilient" and the CTS Global Price Index surging more than 12% to 89 points, its largest monthly gain since June 2024. All regions saw growing imports except North America and the Indian Sub-continent and Middle East, which declined 2% and 4% respectively, while Sub-Saharan Africa continued to emerge as a standout with year-to-date exports up 10% and imports up 15%. The key open question remains when and if elevated transport costs begin to exert meaningful downward pressure on global trade volumes. (FreightWaves June 2026)