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Supply Chain Report

THE LATEST JARRETT SUPPLY CHAIN REPORT FOR JANUARY 2026

MARKET

  •  The Cass Freight Index, which measures overall North American freight volumes and expenditures, reported shipment counts fell 7.2% month over month (m/m) in December, and were down 7.5% year over year (y/y). Freight expenditures fell 1.9% m/m and were down 1.2% y/y. (Cass Information Systems January 2026)
  •  According to the LMI (Logistics Managers Index), transportation capacity plummeted to 36.9 in December, down 13.1 points from November and the lowest level since October 2021, marking the first contraction since March 2022. Transportation pricing reached 66.7, nearly 30 points higher than capacity, suggesting December's freight market was the strongest in over three years. (FreightWaves January 2026)
  •  The Trump administration postponed planned tariff increases on upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities from Jan. 1, 2026, to Jan. 1, 2027. The increases, which were set to rise from 25% to between 30% and 50%, were suspended for one year due to "productive negotiations with trade partners." (Journal of Commerce January 2026)
  •  U.S. logistics, manufacturing and supply chain companies started 2026 with a surge of layoffs, facility closures and bankruptcy filings affecting more than 2,200 workers nationwide. Job cuts span rail support services, parcel networks, food manufacturing, packaging, last-mile delivery and e-commerce as companies face lost contracts, high costs, excess capacity and tighter credit conditions. (FreightWaves January 2026)
  •  The average price of diesel fuel in the U.S. fell for the eighth consecutive week to $3.459 per gallon as of Jan. 12 and was down 14.3% y/y. (US EIA January 2026)

LESS-THAN-TRUCKLOAD (LTL)

  •  Standard Forwarding Freight suspended operations on Dec. 29 and reduced its workforce, with sources indicating the 91-year-old Teamsters-staffed carrier is permanently closing. The carrier operated 14 terminals throughout the Midwest and was acquired by Sakaem Holdings in January 2025, less than a year before the shutdown. (FreightWaves January 2026)
  •  Southeastern Freight Lines formed a partnership with Fletes México Carga Express to strengthen cross-border LTL service between the U.S. and Mexico. The collaboration provides real-time rate quoting, door-to-door shipment tracking and coordinated customs clearance through associates in Laredo, Texas, and Nuevo Laredo, Mexico. (FreightWaves January 2026)

TRUCKLOAD (TL)

  •  Analyst sentiment on a truckload recovery is becoming more positive as increased regulatory enforcement thins capacity. Shares of Knight-Swift, Schneider and Werner are up nearly 40% on average since the week before Thanksgiving, when tender rejections and spot rates began rising sharply. (FreightWaves January 2026)
  •  Truckload spot rates shot up 19 cents per mile in December from November, a 9.1% increase year over year, with the average national rate reaching $2.46 per mile, including fuel. Analysts say February is a key month to watch; if rates remain elevated beyond January's reverse logistics season, pricing power could shift to carriers. (JOC January 2026)
  •  Arkansas-based USA Truck has been acquired by a group of its current and former leaders from Danish freight forwarder DSV, including current CEO George Henry and former CFO Zachary King. The carrier operates a fleet of 1,800 trucks and 6,000 trailers, and the shift to private domestic ownership providing additional flexibility to pursue growth. (FreightWaves 2026)
  •  Spot load posts increased 80.1% week over week (w/w) in early January, while spot truck posts increased 58.1%, tightening capacity. Van load-to-truck ratios rose 10.5% w/w and 62.5% m/m. Van spot rates declined 1.8% w/w despite being up 2.0% m/m and 1.5% y/y. (DAT Freight & Analytics January 2026)

PARCEL

  •  The planned spinoff of FedEx Freight into a new publicly traded company is on track and expected to be executed on June 1, 2026. Following the separation, FedEx Freight will be listed on the New York Stock Exchange under ticker symbol FDXF and will host an investor day April 8, 2026, in New York City. (FedEx January 2026)
  •  The U.S. Postal Service will require trucking contractors to phase out nondomiciled commercial driver’s license holders who aren't eligible to drive in the U.S., aligning with the Department of Transportation's crackdown on immigrant drivers. About 200,000 foreign drivers hold licenses allowing them to drive commercial vehicles, with a DOT audit finding many were improperly granted (FreightWaves January 2026)
  •  On-time delivery performance for national parcel carriers improved during the holiday peak season despite a 5% volume increase. USPS posted the largest improvement, reaching 94.1% compared to 90.4% in 2024, while UPS had the highest on-time rate at 97.2% and FedEx Express improved to 95.3%. The parcel sector delivered about 2.3 billion parcels during peak season, with consumers spending $258 billion online from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, setting a new record for e-commerce sales. (FreightWaves January 2026)

INTERNATIONAL

  •  Drewry’s World Container Index decreased 4% to $2,445 per 40-foot container this week. (Drewry January 2026)
  •  Transpacific container rates from Asia to the U.S. West and East Coast are 30% and 20% higher than mid-December, respectively. Despite the steady climb ahead of the Lunar New Year, 2026 volumes are projected down 10% from last year. The Port of Los Angeles expects single-digit declines in year-over-year import volumes due to high inventories after months of shipper frontloading to beat tariffs. (SupplyChainDive January 2026)
  •  Panama's Supreme Court is deciding whether Hong Kong company CK Hutchison can continue operating two ports at either end of the Panama Canal amid geopolitical competition between the U.S. and China. A government audit showed up to $1.3 billion in lost government revenue since Hutchison's arrival in the late 1990s. At least 5% of global trade flows through the Panama Canal. (WSJ January 2026)
  •  Canada's Port of Saint John completed a C$247 million upgrade that quadrupled container-handling capacity to 800,000 TEUs from 150,000 TEUs in 2021. The port can now handle post-Panamax ships up to 10,000 TEUs and has already seen a 400% year-over-year increase in throughput to 240,000 TEUs in 2025, aligned with Canada's goal of investing C$5 billion in trade infrastructure to lessen reliance on the U.S. (JOC January 2026)