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Supply Chain Report

THE LATEST JARRETT SUPPLY CHAIN REPORT FOR FEBRUARY 2026

MARKET

  • The Cass Freight Index, which measures overall North American freight volumes and expenditures, reported shipment counts fell 4.9% month over month (m/m) in January, and are down 7.1% year over year (y/y). Freight expenditures decreased 3.6% m/m, but were up 0.6% y/y. (Cass Information Systems January 2026)
  • Transportation capacity registered a 47.1 reading in January, marking a second straight month of contraction, though 10.2 percentage points slower than December's 36.9 reading. Transportation pricing rose 4.8 points to 71.4, the fastest growth rate since April 2022. One-year forward forecasts for capacity (42.3), utilization (69) and pricing (79.5) representing a significant market turn. (FreightWaves January 2026)
  • The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 2.7% in 2025, driven largely by a 0.4% increase in the shelter index in December. Food prices increased 3.1%, accelerating from 2.5% in 2024, while energy costs reversed course, increasing 2.3% in 2025 after falling 0.5% in 2024. (FreightWaves January 2026)
  • The average price of diesel fuel in the U.S. fell for the ninth consecutive week to $3.665/gallon on Feb. 14. It is down 10.8% y/y. (EIA February 2026)

LESS-THAN-TRUCKLOAD (LTL)

  • Amazon appears to be in the early stages of reaching out to shippers regarding its LTL offering. A trusted shipper reported the service would start moving freight in June or July with a network of 26 terminals. A Morgan Stanley survey found 11% of shippers have already been approached by Amazon, with nearly 60% saying they would consider the company for LTL under the right conditions. (FreightWaves January 2026)
  • Old Dominion Freight Line reported Q4 revenue declined 5.7% y/y to nearly $1.3 billion as LTL tons per day fell 10.7%, though revenue per hundredweight increased 5.6%. The carrier maintains 35% excess capacity in its service center network and is currently handling 40,000 shipments per day, with the ability to process more than 55,000, positioning it to capture volume when demand rebounds. (JOC February 2026)

TRUCKLOAD (TL)

  • Werner Enterprises acquired dedicated carrier FirstFleet for $245 million, adding more than $615 million in annual revenue and more than 2,400 tractors to Werner's fleet. The acquisition makes Werner the fifth-largest dedicated provider in the U.S., with the combined dedicated fleet totaling approximately 7,365 trucks. (FreightWaves January 2026)
  • Spot load posts surged 80.1% w/w in early January, while spot truck posts increased 58.1%, tightening capacity. Van load-to-truck ratios rose 10.5% w/w and 62.5% m/m. Van spot rates declined 1.8% w/w despite being up 2.0% m/m and 1.5% y/y. (DAT Freight & Analytics January 2026)
  • The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) finalized non-domiciled commercial driver's licenses (CDL), limiting eligibility to H-2A, H-2B and E-2 visa holders while eliminating Employment Authorization Documents. The rule is expected to impact 200,000 drivers over five years, with roughly 40,000 annual exits as credentials expire. About 6,000 drivers per year are projected to qualify under new requirements. (FreightWaves February 2026)

PARCEL

  • USPS quarterly parcel volumes fell 12.1%, or 243 million pieces, contributing to a 64% drop in controllable income during the first quarter. More than 1,200 companies have shown interest in bidding for the USPS's new last-mile service program, with initiatives for first-mile package collection and returns potentially launching later this year. (FreightWaves January 2026)
  • FedEx submitted preliminary plans for a five-story, 1.6 million-square-foot e-commerce small package sort center at Memphis International Airport, code-named "Hercules." The facility would be built south of FedEx's automated sorting facility that opened in October 2024, with the two buildings connected by an elevated bridge. (FreightWaves January 2026)

INTERNATIONAL

  • The Drewry World Container Index decreased 7% to $1,959 per 40-foot container in early February, marking the fourth consecutive week of declining rates. Spot rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles dropped 8% to $2,239 per 40-foot container, and those to New York fell 5% to $2,819, as the traditional pre-Lunar New Year cargo rush failed to materialize in 2026. (Drewry February 2026)
  • The U.S. and India reached a trade agreement, with Washington cutting tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from 50% after India agreed to stop purchases of Russian oil. Imports from India to the U.S. East Coast had fallen 32% from 93,160 TEUs in August to 63,590 TEUs in December, with spot rates declining 54% from $2,640 per FEU to $1,212.50. (JOC January 2026)
  • The FMC is considering fees of up to $2.3 million per voyage on Spanish-flag ships and potential bans from U.S. ports after Spain barred three U.S.-flag vessels and a Danish MPV carrying cargo to Israel. The commission is collecting public input on whether Spain is creating conditions "unfavorable to shipping in foreign trade" through Feb. 20. (JOC January 2026)