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Supply Chain Report

THE LATEST JARRETT SUPPLY CHAIN REPORT FOR DECEMBER 2025

MARKET

  • The November Logistics Manager’s Index reads in at 58.4, down slightly from October. The index has now increased for 12 consecutive months, marking a full year of expansion since November 2023, when it posted a reading of 49.4. (LMI November 2025)
  • An index measuring North American manufacturer buying activity fell to its lowest level since May as U.S. manufacturers slowed orders ahead of a Supreme Court tariff ruling. (WSJ December 2025)
  • The Federal Reserve trimmed the main interest rate by a quarter point to a range between 3.5% and 3.75%. (TruckingDive December 2025)
  • The average price of diesel fuel in the U.S. fell 4% m/m to $3.665/gallon on Dec. 8. The price remains up y/y by nearly 6% (US EIA December 2025)

LESS-THAN-TRUCKLOAD (LTL)

  • Less-than-truckload carrier Old Dominion Freight Line reported a mid-single-digit revenue decline in November as weak volumes were partially offset by higher yields. (FreightWaves December 2025)
  • Less-than-truckload carrier Saia announced that tonnage returned to positive territory on a y/y comparison in November. The recent update reversed a three-month decline in volumes.(FreightWaves December 2025)
  • XPO’s less-than-truckload segment saw tonnage fall 5.4% y/y in November as shipments declined 2.2%, with weight per shipment down 3.2% (FreightWaves December 2025)

TRUCKLOAD (TL)

  • Morgan Stanley said trucking’s supply side is producing the spark needed for a recovery next year but noted that stronger demand will be required to sustain momentum. (FreightWaves December 2025)
  • Intra-Canada dry van spot rates edged down slightly in early November. Capacity remains tighter than in the U.S., but the overall balance continues to favor shippers. (ACT Research December 2025)
  • U.S. truckload spot rates surged in early December as cold weather, snowstorms and a compressed holiday shopping season tighten capacity ahead of Christmas. (JOC December 2025)
  • Low truckload rates putting pressure on traditional request-for-proposal processes. (JOC November 2025)
  • U.S. truckload activity slowed near the Thanksgiving holiday, but the loads that did move were done at a premium. Dry van spot rates rose 0.5% both m/m and y/y. Flatbed spot rates fell by 1.5% m/m and 1.2%y/y. The number of spot loads posted in November fell 8.5% m/m, and were down 21.7% y/y. (DAT Freight & Analytics December 2025)

PARCEL

  • UPS and FedEx announced increases to their fuel surcharge calculation in the midst of the holiday shipping rush. (SupplyChainDive December 2025)
  • Canada Post and the union representing 50,000 mail carriers announced they have reached a tentative agreement after more than two years of negotiations. (FreightWaves November 2025)
  • Delivery service SpeedX has opened an e-commerce superhub in Chicago capable of processing up to 500,000 shipments per day. (FreightWaves December 2025)

INTERNATIONAL

  • Study found that reliance on contracts is resulting in unused truckload and ocean capacity. (JOC December 2025)
  • U.S. container volumes set for weak 2026 amid ongoing trade uncertainty. (JOC December 2025)
  • Canada’s government has outlined plans for increased spending on ports and other infrastructure to reduce the country’s trade dependency on the U.S.(JOC November 2025)
  • The Drewry World Container Index composite, which tracks bi-weekly ocean freight rate movements of 40-ft. containers in seven major maritime lanes, was $1,957 per 40-ft. container on Dec. 11. It is down nearly 45% y/y. (Drewry December 2025)