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Supply Chain Report

THE LATEST JARRETT SUPPLY CHAIN REPORT FOR APRIL 2026

MARKET

  • The Logistics Managers' Index returned a transportation capacity reading of 39.2 and a pricing reading of 89.4 in March — a 50.2 percentage point gap representing the highest positive inversion since November 2021 and the fastest pricing growth since March 2022. The Iran war and regulatory enforcement actions, including English-language proficiency requirements and non-domiciled commercial driver's license (CDL) restrictions, were cited as the primary drivers of capacity contraction.(FreightWaves April 2026)
  • The Cass Freight Index shipments component fell 4.5% year over year but rose 3.0% month over month in March, building on a 10.4% monthly gain in February. In seasonally adjusted terms, shipments rose 1.0% month over month, increasing the likelihood of a second-half recovery. (Cass Freight Index April 2026)
  • The average price of on-highway diesel fuel in the U.S. stood at $5.08 per gallon as of April 13, 2026, up $2.029 per gallon, or 56.5%, year over year. Regional prices ranged from $5.31 per gallon in the Gulf Coast to $7.56 per gallon in California. (U.S. EIA April 2026)
  • The Iran war is pushing the U.S. trucking sector toward a breaking point as diesel prices reach record highs in eight states while total truck driver employment hit an eight-year low in March 2026. Smaller carriers face acute financial fragility as fuel surcharges based on weekly government price averages leave operators absorbing days of higher fuel costs before any adjustment takes effect. (Supply Chain Brain April 2026)

LESS-THAN-TRUCKLOAD (LTL)

  • Old Dominion reported a 3.3% year-over-year revenue-per-day decline in February, improving significantly from the 6.8% drop in January, with revenue per hundredweight up 3.5% year over year through the first two months of the year. The carrier expressed cautious optimism about the domestic economy while noting it holds more than 35% excess terminal capacity, positioning it to capture volume as the market recovers. (FreightWaves April 2026)
  • FedEx Freight outlined 4% to 6% medium-term revenue growth targets at an investor day event ahead of its June 1 spinoff, highlighting its network of more than 365 locations, 26,000 doors and 30,000 vehicles as a scaled competitive advantage. The standalone carrier is targeting small and medium-sized businesses, healthcare, grocery and technology sectors, with a dedicated sales force of more than 500 people driving new and existing customer growth. (Supply Chain Dive April 2026)

TRUCKLOAD (TL)

  • DAT Trendlines data for the week of April 6–12 show van load-to-truck ratios up 89.5%, flatbed ratios up 81.6% and reefer ratios up 145.7%, all year over year, reflecting sharply tightened capacity across all equipment types. Month over month, fuel prices climbed 14.4% and are up 57.7% year over year, underscoring the compounding impact of the Iran conflict on carrier operating costs.  (DAT April 2026)
  • The Iran conflict drove California's average diesel price up $2.23 from a year earlier to $7.22 per gallon in March while the state simultaneously canceled 13,000 non-domiciled CDLs, pushing spot truckload rates up 18 cents month over month. Nationally, dry-van linehaul spot rates reached $2.04 per mile — up 24% year over year — while flatbed rates hit $2.55 per mile, the highest in four years. (JOC April 2026)

PARCEL

  • DHL Express and the Teamsters reached a tentative four-year agreement two days before a March 31 strike deadline, covering thousands of workers across 26 local unions in 16 states. The new contract includes a 20% wage increase, higher health and welfare contributions and explicit prohibitions on autonomous vehicles and AI-driven routing systems that would undermine driver seniority. (FreightWaves April 2026) 
  • UPS is seeking approval to impose an 8% surcharge on parcel products beginning April 26 through Jan. 17, 2027 — the first fuel surcharge in USPS history — as gasoline prices have jumped approximately $1 per gallon to nearly $4 in under a month. The surcharge affects Priority Mail Express, Priority Mail, USPS Ground Advantage and Parcel Select, and the Postal Service notes the fee is less than one-third of current competitor fuel surcharges, which range from 21% to 34% of base transportation rates. (FreightWaves April 2026) 

INTERNATIONAL

  • The Drewry World Container Index rose 1% to $2,309 per 40-foot container, driven by rate increases on Transpacific and Transatlantic routes as carriers pass through higher fuel costs tied to Middle East disruption. Approximately 130 container ships remain stuck or delayed in the Persian Gulf, with most carriers continuing to avoid the region despite a ceasefire announcement. (Drewry April 2026)
  • Fuel costs — not demand — are the primary driver of rising ocean and air freight rates into Q2 2026, with transpacific eastbound ocean conditions described as relatively calm while carriers roll out emergency bunker surcharges globally. Air cargo faces more severe disruption, with global widebody capacity down 11% from pre-Lunar New Year levels and jet fuel prices up approximately 78% since the start of the Iran war, causing shipment delays and rate spikes on Middle East-adjacent corridors. (FreightWaves April 2026) 
  • U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced the first wave of International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariff refunds will begin April 20 through a new Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) tool within CBP's Automated Clearing House (ACH) Portal, prioritizing unliquidated entries and liquidated entries fewer than 80 days old. Importers must hold an ACE Portal or ACH account to receive funds, with CBP estimating the process will take up to 45 days once a CAPE declaration is filed. (JOC April 2026)
  • Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka described the Iran war as "a concern, but not a worry," with April volumes tracking toward 800,000 TEUs as retailers replenish spring and summer seasonal goods following March's 752,520 TEUs. Seroka warned it will take months to untangle supply chain disruption caused by the Strait of Hormuz closure, where more than 4,500 ships on average have been unable to transit in the more than 40 days since the conflict began. (Supply Chain Dive April 2026)